Introduction§I. HOW DO I GET STARTED?§1. Who Are the Customers?§2. What Are the Key Questions?§3. What Is the Broader Context For Analysis?§4. How Should I Conceptualize My Product?§5. What Is My Analytic Approach?§6. Can Collaboration Contribute To a Better Answer?§II. WHERE IS THE INFORMATION I NEED?§7. How Do Models Help My Analysis?§8. What Types Of Information Are Available?§9. Can I Trust My Sources?§10. How Should I Evaluate Sources On the Internet?§III. WHAT IS MY ARGUMENT?§11. Are My Key Assumptions Well-Founded?§12. Can I Make My Case?§13. Did I Consider Alternative Hypotheses?§14. How Do I Deal With Politicization?§15. How Might I Be Spectacularly Wrong?§11. Are My Key Assumptions Well-Founded?§12. Can I Make My Case?§13. Did I Consider Alternative Hypotheses?§14. How Do I Deal With Politicization?§15. How Might I Be Spectacularly Wrong?§IV. HOW DO I CONVEY MY MESSAGE EFFECTIVELY?§16. Is My Argument Persuasive?§17. How Should I Portray Probability and Levels Of Confidence?§18. How Can Graphics Support My Analysis?§19. How Do I Present My Message In the Most Compelling Way?§20. How Do I Know When I Am Done?§V. CASE STUDIES§21. Countering the Iranian Nuclear Threat: Stuxnet and its Broader Implications§22. Puzzling Food Poisonings in Germany§23. The End of the Era of Aircraft Carriers§24. Financial Crisis in the United States: Chronic or Avoidable?§25. Yemen: The Next Afghanistan?§ leírás elrejtése